With high levels of uncertainty in the downstream sector driven by rising PV module costs, we find out more about PV price projections and trends for next year in this interview with Florian Haacke, partner and head of Apricum’s materials and components practice group.

PV module and tracker costs are heavily rising this year. Many downstream partners, especially in the downstream 540–550 W module segment, had not expected this and are now faced with an unusual trend and high levels of uncertainty. Why does it make sense to get a second opinion on future PV price projections, e.g., by Apricum?

Next to the overall geo-political and Chinese market trends reported by Apricum Senior Advisor Frank Haugwitz, our material practice group here at Apricum has the know-how to dig into very differentiated root causes behind future supply-demand trends. We constantly deal with every single solar material and component and can hence add a well-founded bottom-up view on future PV module and system price projections, material by material, component by component.

Looking at this bottom-up view, what pricing trends are you observing?

We see a further tightening of the market in most materials, especially in polysilicon and shipping costs, towards the end of 2021. For next year, we project a slight easing of PV material pricing, but this will vary greatly from material to material and comes in stepwise phases. Early 2020 levels are not likely to be reached until 2–3 years from now.

What other main topics is your materials practice group dealing with currently?

Next to materials for upstream PV and solar thermal, we have many active projects in batteries, green hydrogen, fuel cells and carbon capture and storage. Although these market segments face different levels of maturity, the trends are similar. Projections are best made by combining single component dynamics with overall market and political trends.

To find out more, please contact Apricum Partner Florian Haacke, partner and head of Apricum’s materials and components practice group.

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